The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Many people thought oil prices would go up, but they stayed low.

霍姆茲海峽已關閉。許多人認為油價會上漲，但實際上仍維持在低位。

Some countries use different pipes to move oil. Some ships also move oil in secret. This helps keep the price low.

有些國家使用不同的管道來運輸石油。有些船隻也秘密地運輸石油。這有助於維持低價格。

China is buying much less oil now. They have a lot of oil in secret storage. This helps them control the price.

中國目前的石油採購量大幅減少。他們在秘密儲油庫中擁有大量石油。這有助於他們控制價格。

The USA is making more oil. They also use their own oil stores. Also, the world uses less energy now than in the year 2000.

美國增加了石油產量。他們也使用自身的儲油量。此外，現在全球的能源消耗比 2000 年時要少。

Oil prices are low now. But the world is running out of oil stores. Prices may go up soon.

目前油價處於低位。但全球儲油量即將耗盡，油價可能很快會上漲。

Even though the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and oil supplies have been disrupted, global oil prices have stayed much lower than experts expected.

儘管霍爾木茲海峽已經關閉且石油供應受阻，但全球油價仍遠低於專家的預期。

There are several reasons why oil prices have not risen as much as predicted. Experts originally thought that closing the Strait of Hormuz—which handles about 20% of the world's oil—would push prices up to $200 per barrel. However, prices have remained below $90. This is partly because countries are using alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE to move 9 million barrels a day. Furthermore, some ships are using 'dark' shipping methods, meaning they turn off their tracking systems to move oil secretly.

油價未如預期般大漲有幾個原因。專家原以為關閉處理全球約 20% 石油的霍爾木茲海峽，會將價格推高至每桶 200 美元。然而，價格一直維持在 90 美元以下。部分原因是各國利用沙烏地阿拉伯與阿拉伯聯合大公國的替代管道，每日運送 900 萬桶原油。此外，部分船隻採用「暗船」運輸方式，意即關閉追蹤系統以秘密運送石油。

Another important factor is the sharp drop in oil imports from China, which fell to their lowest level since 2017 in May. Because China's industrial activity is still stable, analysts believe the country is using its own large strategic oil reserves. Consequently, China has become a 'swing consumer,' meaning it can influence global prices by changing how much oil it buys. This strategy helps protect the Chinese economy from trade problems and gives them more power in international politics.

另一個重要因素是中國石油進口量大幅下降，5 月份跌至 2017 年以來最低水平。由於中國的工業活動依然穩定，分析師認為該國正利用其龐大的戰略石油儲備。因此，中國已成為「搖擺消費者」，意即能透過改變採購量來影響全球價格。此策略有助於保護中國經濟免受貿易問題影響，並在國際政治中獲得更多權力。

Additionally, the United States has helped keep prices stable by increasing its own oil production and releasing emergency reserves. The Trump administration's public statements have also reduced market panic. Finally, the world has become more energy-efficient; since 2000, the amount of energy needed to grow the economy has dropped by 30-40%. Together, these factors have protected the global economy from the sudden loss of oil supplies.

此外，美國透過增加原油產量及釋出緊急儲備，協助維持價格穩定。川普政府的公開聲明也減輕了市場恐慌。最後，全球能源效率有所提升；自 2000 年起，推動經濟增長所需的能源量下降了 30-40%。綜合這些因素，全球經濟得以免於石油供應突然中斷的衝擊。

Although several different methods have kept oil prices low for now, the fact that global fuel stocks are running low creates a risk that prices will rise in the future.

儘管目前有多種不同方法將油價維持在低位，但全球燃料儲備不足的事實，使得未來價格上升仍存在風險。

Despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent supply disruptions, global oil prices have remained significantly below projected peaks.

儘管霍姆茲海峽關閉並隨之而來供應中斷，但全球油價仍顯著低於預期的峰值。

The divergence between anticipated price surges and current market valuations is attributable to several intersecting factors. Historically, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for approximately 20% of global crude oil—was forecasted to drive prices toward $200 per barrel. However, current trading remains below $90. This stability is partially facilitated by the utilization of alternative transit infrastructure, specifically the Saudi East-West and Emirati pipelines, which currently transport nearly 9 million barrels daily. Furthermore, the deployment of 'dark' tankers—vessels operating without Automatic Identification Systems—has enabled a gradual recovery of non-Iranian oil flows.

預期價格飆升與目前市場估值之間的分歧，可歸因於幾個交織的因素。歷史上，霍姆茲海峽作為全球約 20% 原油的通道，一旦關閉，預測將把價格推向每桶 200 美元。然而，目前的交易價格仍低於 90 美元。這種穩定部分得益於替代運輸基礎設施的利用，特別是沙烏地東西管道和阿聯酋管道，目前每日運輸近 900 萬桶。此外，「幽靈」油輪（即不開啟自動識別系統的船隻）的部署，使非伊朗油流得以逐漸恢復。

Of particular strategic significance is the precipitous decline in Chinese imports, which decreased from 11.6 million to 7.8 million barrels per day in May, the lowest level since 2017. Given that Chinese industrial indicators remain stable, this reduction suggests the utilization of substantial, potentially subterranean, strategic reserves. This shift effectively positions China as a 'swing consumer,' capable of modulating global prices by adjusting its demand. Such capacity may serve to insulate the Chinese economy from trade disruptions or provide leverage in geopolitical competitions.

具有特別戰略意義的是中國進口量的驟降，5 月份從每日 1,160 萬桶降至 780 萬桶，為 2017 年以來最低水平。鑑於中國工業指標保持穩定，此降幅顯示其利用了大量且可能為地下儲存的戰略儲備。這一轉變有效地將中國定位為「搖擺消費者」，能夠透過調整需求來調節全球價格。此能力可使中國經濟免受貿易中斷影響，或在地緣政治競爭中提供籌碼。

Additionally, the United States has mitigated price volatility through increased domestic production and the release of strategic reserves. Market sentiment has also been influenced by the communicative interventions of the Trump administration, which have dampened speculative volatility. These factors, combined with a global trend toward increased energy efficiency—where the energy required for GDP generation has declined by 30-40% since 2000—have collectively buffered the global economy against the immediate effects of the supply shock.

此外，美國透過增加國內生產和釋放戰略儲備，緩解了價格波動。市場情緒也受到川普政府溝通干預的影響，抑制了投機性波動。這些因素，結合全球提升能源效率的趨勢（自 2000 年起，產生 GDP 所需的能源下降了 30-40%），共同緩衝了全球經濟面對供應衝擊的直接影響。

While diverse mechanisms have currently suppressed oil prices, the continued depletion of global liquid fuel inventories poses a risk of future price escalation.

儘管目前有各種機制抑制油價，但全球液體燃料庫存的持續枯竭，為未來的價格上漲帶來風險。